A United Ireland Referendum Must Not Turn Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Commentators Caution

A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."